The Home Dawgs: Riding a hot streak
By Brandon Hurley
One thing I’ve learned rather quickly over the years, is to not get overconfident.
It’s a lesson that certainly can be applied in any facet of life, but especially when gambling on sports. Like anything we do, there’s a fine line to walk between confidence and just downright arrogance and stupidity.
Within the sports betting realm, it’s so incredibly easy to ride a hot streak and proceed to lay more money then we should. Winning is fun. especially pulling in that cold hard cash. No one wants to pack it in just as the excitement is peaking.
But as we jump on the train of the Home Dawgs’ success, I encourage us all, myself particularly, to take a deep breath, slow down, and analyze the lines as much as usual.
With that being said, I still need to pimp our recent hot streak. Time for a little bragging. If you’ve been following along these last few weeks, you have absolutely won money, and some good cheese at that.
The Home Dawgs column was a brilliant 4-0 last week, our first perfect run of the still ever-so young segment.
It was a weird thing, really, I wasn’t too excited on any of the lines, and as the weekend inched closer, I had a sick feeling that my Michigan lock was a terrible decision. But, hey, here we are, sitting at 10-6 the last three weeks, including a 7-2 run the last two, sitting pretty and making you all money.
While we are at it, remember to not blow your entire bankroll this week just because we are on fire. There’s plenty of season left. We aren’t making a sprint to the finish, it’s a marathon (shoutout to last week’s podcast guest, Jeff Kroll). We need to pace ourselves.
With that, we move into Week 9 of the college football season and Week 8 of the NFL.
Once again, I don’t necessarily feel too enthused about any of these lines, but let’s hope it’s a pattern for continued success.
Good luck, everyone, I know I’ll need it.
NOTE: I’m taking a week off from the NFL. They’ve treated me nicely over the last few weeks, but i just am not seeing the board well this time around.
HOME DAWGS PICKS
B-Hurl’s Season Record: 14-6
Last week: 4-0
- Winners in bold
- Lines and odds by Draftkings Sportsbook
1. Indiana at Nebraska (+2.5)
I like Nebraska as a home ‘dog this week. They can’t get embarrassed in Lincoln for a second time this year, can they? Nebraska isn’t good, but Indiana hasn’t necessarily beaten anyone. Plus, the Hoosiers usually aren’t the best road team. An injury note may be my deciding factor. Indiana is a team that can score points, but their star quarterback, Mike Penz, Jr. is a game time decision. If he’s out, absolutely bang the home underdogs, especially coming off a bye.
2. Notre Dame (+1) at Michigan
omething about this line is fishy, but the Irish are still a better team than the Wolverines. It’s a rivalry game and the fighting Brian Kelly’s won’t like being a road underdog, even if they are at the Big House. Michigan doesn’t have the muscle to beat Notre Dame. The Irish have a better offense, and in this business, when you have a good QB, you can usually pull out a rivalry win.
3. Iowa at Northwestern (+10)
The Wildcats and Pat Fitzgerald as home underdogs against an Iowa team that can’t even score touchdowns against a porous Purdue defense? Feed me this line all day. Hell, I’m not even sure the Hawks win, so if you’re looking for a nice moneyline play, take the Midwestern School of Journalism for the win and thank me later. Northwestern gives me no reason to believe in them besides the fact that Pat Fitzgerald knows how to beat the Hawks.
4. Oklahoma State at Iowa State (-10)
Iowa State is on a roll ever since losing to Baylor a few weeks ago, and I have confidence they’ll keep it going. I initially thought about taking the Cowboys, but changed my mind. The public is all over OSU, and the Cyclones play well in October. OSU has the offense to hang with ISU for awhile, but they don’t have even a decent defense. The O/U is set at 63.5 so if you want a game to bet the UNDER, this could be the one. Yes, both teams can really put up the points, but I don’t think Oklahoma State has necessarily met a defense like ISU’s. The Clones won’t shut OSU down, but they’ll hold them under their average.
That’s all I have for you this week, folks. Go enjoy some fun in the sun.