THE EARLY LEAD: Week 10 picks

A case for a revamped playoff system, already

By BRANDON HURLEY

Sports Editor 

sports@beeherald.com

@BrandonJHurley

 

I’ll admit, I was wrong. 

Going into the 2016 football season, I felt the 16-team playoff system was the perfect fit, much better than the 32-team fields of the past eight years. But boy, did I eat my words over the weekend.

Example number one and two of why 16 teams isn’t the final solution are the 8-1 Coon Rapids-Bayard Crusaders and the 8-1 Lone Tree Lions, a pair of teams left out of the playoffs. 

CR-B was shut out of the eight-player playoffs because of a slightly confusing point-differential tie-breaker in district eight. 

So, a spectacular season which saw the Crusaders lead all of eight-player in total rushing (3,054 yards) and second in total rushing touchdowns (55) while averaging 51 points per game and close the season on a six-game win-streak, ended in heartbreak and short of the playoffs. 

Tailback Sam Obert led the state in rushing with 1,631 yards while quarterback Brandon Riley was no slouch either, piling up 1,117 rush yards of his own. 

The Crusader defense was stout over the final five games of the season as well, holding opponents to just seven points each time out. 

If that wasn’t enough to warrant a playoff spot, CR-B’s only loss came to Audubon, 30-20 in the third week of the season, a team that was ranked as high as No. 2 just last week. And to top it off, the Crusaders only played two games all season that were within 20 points. 

Let’s not ignore the most glaring factor here… CR-B is ranked fifth in the last Associated Press high school poll. Take a second to let that sink in… the No. 5 ranked team in the state, which hasn’t lost since the second Friday of September, was shut out of the playoffs.

Lone Tree’s only loss came at the hands of Iowa Valley, who made the playoffs. The Lions were fourth in eight-player in total rush yards (2,783) and was first in total rushing touchdowns (59). 

So any grumblings from CR-B and Lone Tree fans and players over the next few days is completely warranted. 

With that being said, I know it’s not a perfect system and the Iowa High School Athletic Association did not deliberately leave Coon Rapids-Bayard or Lone Tree out of the playoffs – they didn’t hand select the teams. But this system clearly isn’t the final answer, though it is a drastic improvement from the 32-team system. We only have four rounds of playoffs and the kids are playing one game per week, which is great for safety and eliminates 75-0 games, but it leaves something more to be desired. 

Though it’s a completely different challenge to decide where to go from here. Eight-player and Class 4A are the only two divisions out of six divisions that don’t have three at-large bids due to allotment of eight districts with two auto bids apiece. That’s where it gets tricky. 

Do you have 24 teams qualify, leaving three teams for each eight man and 4A district and no at-large bids while the other classes have three qualifiers per district and three at-large bids? 

A significant portion of districts across the state had at least three teams with less than two losses, so that could be something. 

I feel for CR-B and Lone Tree, and allow them to gripe. I know I for sure as hell would. 

 

On to the contest!

 

Christy Fields of Maquoketa captured first place with a 15-2 record. Her only inccorrect picks were the Michigan State game (Maryland won) and Ohio State (Penn State won). 

There was a five-way tie for second place with 14 correct picks. The total score for all week nine games was 781.

Bill Tasler of Jefferson predicted a total score of 865, earning him second place. 

Amy Van de Meer’s guess of 939 was the next closest, securing her third place. 

I had a dismal week nine performance, going a pathetic 7-10, missing all but two college games. 

This is  the last week of the Bee’s football contest until the college bowl season. Thank you all for participating.

SEASON RECORD: 98-51-3

 

1. Kansas State at Iowa State (+6.5)

Iowa State’s at home, off a bye and is an improving team. Why not. 

2. Michigan at Michigan State (+23.5)

If this was at the Big House I would’ve jumped all over Michigan, but I think Sparty can at least cover at home. 

3. Minnesota at Illinois (+5)

Welp, the Gophers gave up 32 points to Rutgers last week and Illnois got manhandled by Michigan. Who knows. Home dog it is. 

4. Nebraska at Wisconsin (-8.5)

Yep, Bucky can cover this, barely, ending the Huskers’ undefeated season. 

5. Miami at Notre Dame (+2.5)

Who knows with this game. I’ll take the home dog though. 

6. Washington (-10) at Utah

This spread seems about right. I could see the Huskies winning by 12 or 13.  

7. Florida (-7.5) vs. Georgia

Used to be known as the “World’s biggest cocktail party. Gators romp.  

8. Auburn at Ole Miss (+4) 

Auburn went nuts against Arkansas, but Ole Miss being a home dog won’t sit well with them. 

9. Clemson (-4.5) at Florida State

I want to take another home underdog here but it’s just too low of a line and Clemson is the better team.  

10. Texas Tech at TCU (-8.5)

I see Texas Tech having a bit of a let down after their marathon game against OU last week. 

11. Baylor at Texas (+3)

I just have a hunch here. No real reason. 

12. Stanford (-5.5) at Arizona 

The Cardinal have to get back on the winning track at some point, don’t they? 

13. Penn State (-11.5) at Purdue

I’d take a 25 point line if given the opportunity. Purdue’s performance last week was a fluke.  

14. Louisville at Virginia (+31.5)

Another home dog that I can’t help but jump on. Louisville is great, but not 32 points great. 

15. West Virginia (-4) at Oklahoma State

Four points, that’s it? West Virginia is undefeated and running through opponents. Give me a break. Mountaineers in a romp. 

16. Duke at Georgia Tech (-6.5)

This line has moved significantly over the last few days, which means smart money is on Tech. 

17. Northwestern (+27) at Ohio State

Hangover game. Put the ‘Cats down with the points. 

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