Why is Iowa different this year from the other swing states?

Iowa appears to be one of the few toss-up states in the 2016 presidential election. Most polls show Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump separated by only a couple of percentage points in the Hawkeye State.

National political commentators usually trot out their standard explanation for that situation: Iowa is whiter than most states, and since a majority of whites vote Republican, Trump is doing better in Iowa than he is most of the other “purple” (swing) states.

In nearly all the other swing states, Clinton holds poll leads ranging from a few points up to double digits. And that’s because, according to the pundits, there are more non-whites in those states, and non-whites overwhelmingly favor Clinton.

Maybe so. But that explanation doesn’t square with the fact that Barack Obama carried Iowa twice, in 2008 and 2012, and did so by comfortable margins over his white opponents.

In 2008, it was Obama 828,940 to 682,379 over John McCain (54 percent to 44 percent). In 2012, Obama beat Mitt Romney in the state 822,544 to 730,617 (52 percent to 46 percent).

Iowa’s demographics haven’t changed very much in the past eight years.

If Iowa’s whiteness explains Trump’s competitiveness in Iowa, how did Obama win both of the last presidential races here? And why isn’t Clinton apparently doing as well in Iowa in 2016 as Obama did in 2008 and 2012?

Here are a few possible explanations:

1. Clinton is a woman, and Iowa’s tradition is a reluctance to elect women to high office.

Until 2014, Iowa and Mississippi were the only states never to elect a woman to Congress or as governor. Joni Ernst put an end to that — but she wasn’t running for the nation’s highest office.

Iowa has an older population, and older voters may be nervous about the idea of a woman as president. (Clinton came in third in the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 2008, behind both Obama and John Edwards.)

2. Guns are a higher profile issue now than they were in 2008. In the past eight years, Iowa has relaxed its strictures on carrying guns, and many gun owners sincerely believe that Clinton wants to “take away our guns.”

The Second Amendment wasn’t so controversial in Iowa eight years ago.

3. In a state where so many small towns and sparsely populated counties are trending downward, there’s a longing for “the good old days” when things were more vibrant. A candidate like Trump whose theme is “Make America Great Again” resonates with a significant portion of the electorate.

4. In 2008, the recession and the “Bush war” weighed heavily on the Republican Party. Obama signified “hope and change,” an advantage that Clinton doesn’t enjoy in 2016.

5. In 2008, Obama had organized his supporters for months prior to the caucuses in Iowa, and had field staff in every region of the state. He campaigned frequently in Iowa. He knew that if he carried the Democratic caucuses, his victory here would win him support from blacks and other Democrats across the nation.

The theory worked, and he instantly became highly competitive as a candidate.

Clinton downplayed caucus states generally in 2008 in favor of primaries, and it cost her in Iowa.

6. Clinton’s big lead nationally this year might work against her putting a lot of resources into Iowa. With most polls showing her with an all-but-insurmountable lead in the electoral vote across the nation, she simply doesn’t need to concentrate on Iowa.

She can lose Iowa and still win comfortably nationwide in November. She has campaigned here rarely since the first of the year.

7. Unlike some other swing states, like Ohio, where GOP leaders have kept their distance from Trump, Iowa’s top Republicans have embraced him.

Gov. Branstad, Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst, and Congressmen Steve King and Rod Blum in particular are strong Trump supporters. And Branstad’s son, Eric Branstad, is head of the Trump campaign in Iowa.

8. Finally, there was no U.S. Senate election in Iowa in 2012. Sen. Grassley’s popularity is likely to turn out a strong vote for himself among independents this November, and some of them will be planning to vote also for the top of the Republican ticket.

Clinton may carry Iowa in November, but the margin is likely to be relatively narrow, if today’s polls are to be believed.

Trump may win here. But I don’t think that’s because of Iowa’s whiteness. Obama’s victories here should have erased that theory.

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And a reminder: The Greene County Fair Association’s third annual barbecue auction for its Capital Building Project will take place Tuesday in Clover Hall at the fairgrounds in Jefferson.

Doors open at 5 p.m. with a social hour. The beef barbecue dinner will follow at 6 p.m., with the auction starting at 7 p.m. (See full story in today’s Herald.) Tickets are available from any fair board member or at the door.

Funds from the highly successful auctions go to help replace the old wooden livestock buildings at the fairgrounds. Each of the past two years the event has raised at least $100,000.

To date, the fair board has replaced the swine building and the sheep building with handsome new metal buildings.

This year’s auction proceeds will go toward replacement of the wooden beef barns, which are around 75 years old. The new beef facilities will be ready in time for the 2018 fair.

The hard-working 18 members of the fair board have turned their annual auction into one of Greene County’s best success stories. They hope to continue that tradition this year.

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