Paul Ryan in the catbird seat

“Sitting in the catbird seat” is a term for when someone is in a position to call the shots. Paul Ryan is sitting in the catbird seat.

Congressman Ryan of Wisconsin, the Republican nominee for vice president in 2012, heads the powerful House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, the starting place for tax legislation. A recognized expert on budget matters, his “Ryan budget” outlines his plan to balance the federal budget over a period of years, mostly through head-turning cuts in government spending.

After Republican House Speaker John Boehner announced his resignation, and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy surprised everyone by saying he would not accept the speakership, most House Republicans frantically turned to Ryan as someone most likely to command the support of the various wings of their deeply divided party and then steer the House on future legislative matters.

But Ryan had said publicly many times that he doesn’t want to be Speaker. He prefers the powerful Ways and Means Committee chairmanship, where his expertise is unmatched (although controversial among Democrats).

However, no one else appears able to win the support of 218 House Republicans for the speakership. That’s the number it takes for a majority of the 435-member House.  

Simple math shows about 40 hard-line Republicans in the “Freedom Caucus” who at this point are not yet eager to hand over their party’s leadership to Ryan, whom they consider too moderate. Subtract 40 from the 247 Republicans in the party’s House caucus, and the result comes up short of 218.

Democrats could help, of course, but it’s doubtful they would step up to bail out the Republicans. And having to rely on Democratic votes to win the speakership would dog Ryan forever after.

And it’s highly unlikely that mainstream Republicans in the House will support anyone their hard-right colleagues prefer as Speaker.

So the Republicans were apparently at a standstill in the House, unless Ryan agreed to accept the position of Speaker. And after several days of resisting, on Tuesday evening he said he would consider acceptance — if all GOP factions in the House came together to support him.

And that’s where the catbird seat comes in.

Ryan can call the shots. He’s demanding assent from all divisions in the House GOP caucus in return for his agreement to take the speakership.

He can force the hard-liners (or at least enough of them to create a 218-member majority in his support) to increase the debt ceiling in a few weeks instead of shutting down the government.

He can, if he so desires, demand that the House pass a multi-year transportation bill, something the hard-liners have so far resisted.

He can deny the Freedom Caucus its priority goal of limiting the power of the Speaker and empowering individual House members.

The far right wing can bluster, but it can’t block Ryan’s agenda. He could walk away from the speakership if he so chose. That would throw the House into chaos, and seriously wound Republican election hopes in 2016.

As Speaker of the House, Ryan can extract pledges from the far right members that defang their extreme positions and obstructive tactics.

Congress would be one step closer to governing after all.

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